Mauritius vs Sri Lanka prediction & analysis
Mauritius or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.24 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Mauritius to win @ 1.86 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mauritius 2.1 – 0.9 Sri Lanka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mauritius are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Sri Lanka.
Mauritius have taken 5 points from their last 3 matches (1W 2D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.0 per game. Sri Lanka have 12 points from their last 5 (4W 0D 1L), averaging 2.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. Sri Lanka come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 for Mauritius, 0.9 for Sri Lanka). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Mauritius have won 1, Sri Lanka have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Mauritius or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Mauritius to win at 1.86 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mauritius to win ✗ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.86 ▲ |
| Double chance | Mauritius or draw ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.24 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Mauritius ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mauritius / FT Mauritius ✗ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.86 | – |
Form
Mauritius – last 3
| 2 Oct | vs Sri Lanka | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Somalia | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ Somalia | 0–0 | D |
Sri Lanka – last 5
| 2 Oct | @ Mauritius | 0–3 | L |
| 30 Sep | @ Seychelles | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Seychelles | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Jun | vs Bhutan | 4–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Chinese Taipei | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Oct 2026 | Mauritius v Sri Lanka | 3–0 |
More Friendlies predictions
League hub
England U190
Belgium U191
Uganda1
Congo DR1
Ukraine U212
Albania U212
Montenegro U190
Israel U191
Serbia U212
Russia U211
Liechtenstein0
Gibraltar2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mauritius vs Sri Lanka?
Our pick is Mauritius or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Mauritius vs Sri Lanka?
On our numbers Mauritius have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sri Lanka 14%.
How many goals will there be in Mauritius vs Sri Lanka?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Mauritius vs Sri Lanka?
Mauritius vs Sri Lanka (Friendlies) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.