Colombia vs Paraguay prediction & analysis
Colombia to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Colombia 2.1 – 0.7 Paraguay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Colombia are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 10% for Paraguay.
Colombia have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.3 per game. Paraguay have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Colombia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.1 for Colombia, 0.7 for Paraguay). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Colombia to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is better than our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Colombia to win ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Colombia or draw ✗ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.17 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | – |
| Half-time result | Colombia ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Colombia / FT Colombia ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.60 | – |
Form
Colombia – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Mexico | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jul | @ Switzerland | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Jul | vs Ghana | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Jun | vs Portugal | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Jun | vs Congo DR | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Jun | @ Uzbekistan | 3–1 | W |
Paraguay – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Bolivia | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Jul | vs France | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Jun | @ Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jun | vs Australia | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Jun | @ Türkiye | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Jun | @ USA | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colombia and Paraguay.
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Cameroon1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Colombia vs Paraguay?
Our pick is Colombia to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Colombia vs Paraguay?
On our numbers Colombia have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paraguay 10%.
How many goals will there be in Colombia vs Paraguay?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Colombia vs Paraguay?
Colombia vs Paraguay (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.