Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: 1. FC Köln to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Result1. FC Köln to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chance1. FC Köln or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗68% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.37
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin preview and prediction
The match
Union Berlin travel to RheinEnergieStadion in the DFB Pokal on Tuesday 27 October (20:45 WAT) to face 1. FC Köln.
Form guide
1. FC Köln's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with FC Schalke 04 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Union Berlin's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with FC Augsburg 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 2.9 for 1. FC Köln and 1.6 for Union Berlin. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: 1. FC Köln 63%, draw 21%, Union Berlin 17%.
Safer route: 1. FC Köln or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.57.
Value angle: 1. FC Köln to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was 1. FC Köln or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: 1. FC Köln 2–1 Union Berlin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
1. FC Köln63%fair 1.60 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.60
Union Berlin17%fair 6.04 · @3.80
4.50Expected goals
2.911. FC Köln xG
1.59Union Berlin xG
68%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
4–15%
1–15%
From our goals model: 1. FC Köln 2.9 – 1.6 Union Berlin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
1. FC Köln to win✓
63%
1.60
1.80 ▲
Double chance
1. FC Köln or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.57 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
1. FC Köln ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT 1. FC Köln / FT 1. FC Köln✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.37
–
Form
1. FC Köln – last 6
DLWDLD
24 Oct
vs FC Schalke 04
0–0
D
16 Oct
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ FC Viktoria Köln
2–2
D
19 Sep
@ Hamburger SV
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Werder Bremen
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Union Berlin – last 6
DDWLLL
24 Oct
@ FC Augsburg
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Borussia Dortmund
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs SV Elversberg
1–0
W
18 Sep
@ Bayern München
0–7
L
11 Sep
vs FC Schalke 04
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Bayer Leverkusen
0–4
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin.
What is the prediction for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our pick is 1. FC Köln or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
On our numbers 1. FC Köln have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Union Berlin 17%.
How many goals will there be in 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our predicted score is 1. FC Köln 2–1 Union Berlin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin (DFB Pokal) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at RheinEnergieStadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
VfL Bochum2
FSV Mainz 050
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2
FC Augsburg4
Hamburger SV1
Eintracht Frankfurt3
Rot-Weiß Essen1
RB Leipzig2
Borussia Mönchengladbach2
Karlsruher SC0
Borussia Dortmund3
Werder Bremen2
SV Elversberg0
SV Darmstadt 982