Value bet: FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 1.65 – our chance 67% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗67% · @1.65
Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✗87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗73% · @1.57
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5% · fair 18.60
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 preview and prediction
The match
VfL Bochum host FSV Mainz 05 in the DFB Pokal on Tuesday 27 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
Form guide
VfL Bochum's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
FSV Mainz 05's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Werder Bremen 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 6.0 goals: 2.1 for VfL Bochum and 3.9 for FSV Mainz 05. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 94% and both teams to score at 73%.
Value angle: FSV Mainz 05 to win at 1.65 – 67% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 73% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.37, so there is value in it. Predicted score: VfL Bochum 2–3 FSV Mainz 05. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VfL Bochum13%fair 7.96 · @4.60
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.80
FSV Mainz 0567%fair 1.49 · @1.65
6.00Expected goals
2.07VfL Bochum xG
3.93FSV Mainz 05 xG
73%Both score
94%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–35%
2–45%
1–35%
1–45%
2–54%
2–24%
From our goals model: VfL Bochum 2.1 – 3.9 FSV Mainz 05 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FSV Mainz 05 to win✗
67%
1.49
1.65 ▲
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
73%
1.37
1.57 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05✗
50%
2.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–3✗
5%
18.60
–
Form
VfL Bochum – last 6
DLLLDW
23 Oct
vs VfL Wolfsburg
1–1
D
17 Oct
@ 1. FC Kaiserslautern
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs Arminia Bielefeld
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Hannover 96
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Dynamo Dresden
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 – last 6
LWLWWL
24 Oct
vs Werder Bremen
2–3
L
17 Oct
@ FC Schalke 04
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Bayer Leverkusen
3–4
L
3 Oct
@ Waldhof Mannheim
3–0
W
19 Sep
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
2.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05.
What is the prediction for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
On our numbers VfL Bochum have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FSV Mainz 05 67%.
How many goals will there be in VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our predicted score is VfL Bochum 2–3 FSV Mainz 05, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.
When is VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 (DFB Pokal) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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