Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Sporting Ben Arous to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting Ben Arous to win ✗65% · @1.75
Double chanceSporting Ben Arous or draw ✗87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.61
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.98
Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia preview and prediction
The match
EM Mahdia travel to face Sporting Ben Arous in the Ligue 2 on Saturday 26 September (15:00 WAT). Sporting Ben Arous are 15th with 9 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while EM Mahdia sit 2nd on 17 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Sporting Ben Arous's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Menzel Bourguiba 6–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
EM Mahdia's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Kerkennah 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Sporting Ben Arous arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Sporting Ben Arous and 0.5 for EM Mahdia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sporting Ben Arous 65%, draw 22%, EM Mahdia 13%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sporting Ben Arous to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sporting Ben Arous 1–0 EM Mahdia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting Ben Arous65%fair 1.53 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.00
EM Mahdia13%fair 7.84 · @4.75
2.05Expected goals
1.56Sporting Ben Arous xG
0.49EM Mahdia xG
38%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–016%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sporting Ben Arous 1.6 – 0.5 EM Mahdia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting Ben Arous to win✗
65%
1.53
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Sporting Ben Arous or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting Ben Arous / FT Sporting Ben Arous✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.98
–
Form
Sporting Ben Arous – last 6
WLDLDW
11 May
vs Menzel Bourguiba
6–0
W
1 May
@ US Tataouine
0–1
L
27 Apr
vs Mégrine
1–1
D
13 Apr
vs AS Agareb
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Bouselem
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs BS Bouhajla
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
EM Mahdia – last 6
LLLDDD
11 May
vs Kerkennah
1–3
L
1 May
@ Menzel Bourguiba
0–1
L
27 Apr
vs US Tataouine
0–1
L
13 Apr
vs CS Chebba
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ AS Agareb
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Sfax Railways
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Ben Arous and EM Mahdia.
What is the prediction for Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia?
Our pick is Sporting Ben Arous to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia?
On our numbers Sporting Ben Arous have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and EM Mahdia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia?
Our predicted score is Sporting Ben Arous 1–0 EM Mahdia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia?
Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia (Ligue 2) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
