Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 2.75 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✗42% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.08
Paysandu vs Ferroviária preview and prediction
The match
Paysandu host Ferroviária in the Serie C on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT). Paysandu are 4th with 5 points from 6 games, while Ferroviária sit 1st on 11 points.
Form guide
Paysandu's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Inter De Limeira 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ferroviária's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Brusque 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Ferroviária arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 September 2026, finished Ferroviária 1–0 Paysandu. Across their last 2 meetings Paysandu have won 0, Ferroviária 2, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Paysandu and 1.3 for Ferroviária. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Ferroviária to win at 2.75 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Paysandu 1–1 Ferroviária. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paysandu34%fair 2.91 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Ferroviária42%fair 2.40 · @2.75
2.48Expected goals
1.16Paysandu xG
1.32Ferroviária xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Paysandu 1.2 – 1.3 Ferroviária expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Paysandu vs Ferroviária?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Paysandu vs Ferroviária?
On our numbers Paysandu have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ferroviária 42%.
How many goals will there be in Paysandu vs Ferroviária?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paysandu vs Ferroviária?
Our predicted score is Paysandu 1–1 Ferroviária, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Paysandu vs Ferroviária?
Paysandu vs Ferroviária (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
