Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceFerroviária or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.43
Ferroviária vs Brusque preview and prediction
The match
Brusque travel to Arena Fonte Luminosa in the Serie C on Sunday 20 September (22:30 WAT) to face Ferroviária. Ferroviária are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Brusque sit 3rd on 7 points.
Form guide
Ferroviária's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Paysandu 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Brusque's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Inter De Limeira 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Ferroviária 1–0 Brusque.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Ferroviária and 0.7 for Brusque. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Ferroviária to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ferroviária or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ferroviária 1–0 Brusque. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviária61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.90
Brusque13%fair 7.49 · @3.70
2.40Expected goals
1.71Ferroviária xG
0.69Brusque xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.7 – 0.7 Brusque expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Brusque?
Our pick is Ferroviária or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Brusque?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Brusque 13%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Brusque?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Brusque?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Brusque, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Brusque?
Ferroviária vs Brusque (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
