Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Deportivo Maldonado to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.60
Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado preview and prediction
The match
Cerrito host Deportivo Maldonado in the Copa Uruguay on Wednesday 2 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Cerrito's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Sportivo Huracan 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Juventud 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.8 for Cerrito and 1.5 for Deportivo Maldonado. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Deportivo Maldonado to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Cerrito 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerrito23%fair 4.40 · @3.80
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.10
Deportivo Maldonado56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
2.28Expected goals
0.80Cerrito xG
1.48Deportivo Maldonado xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–112%
0–211%
0–010%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Cerrito 0.8 – 1.5 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✓
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
32%
3.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.60
–
Form
Cerrito – last 6
LWDLDD
29 Aug
@ Sportivo Huracan
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Uruguay Montevideo
3–0
W
14 Aug
vs Oriental
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Colón
0–1
L
2 Aug
vs Fenix
1–1
D
18 Jul
@ Rentistas
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
LDWDDL
29 Aug
@ Juventud
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Penarol
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Progreso
2–0
W
10 Aug
vs Racing Montevideo
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Juventud
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Progreso
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerrito and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Cerrito have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Maldonado 56%.
How many goals will there be in Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Cerrito 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Central Espanol3
Juventud0
Liverpool Montevideo0
Boston River1