Emperor Cup · Japan · Mercari Stadium
Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu prediction & analysis
Kashima to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Kashima 2.6 – 0.9 Ventforet Kofu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Kashima are clear favourites at home with a 72% chance of winning, against 7% for Ventforet Kofu.
Kashima have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.8 per game. Ventforet Kofu have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.6 for Kashima, 0.9 for Ventforet Kofu). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%).
Our pick is Kashima to win at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is close to our fair price of 1.39. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.95 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kashima to win ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| Double chance | Kashima or draw ✓ | 93% | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Kashima ahead at half-time ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Kashima / FT Kashima ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.62 | – |
Form
Kashima – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Kawasaki Frontale | 3–3 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Newcastle Jets | 7–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Vissel Kobe | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Urawa | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ Mito Hollyhock | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Tokyo Verdy | 2–0 | W |
Ventforet Kofu – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Tokushima Vortis | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Jubilo Iwata | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Montedio Yamagata | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sep | @ Osaka | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Consadole Sapporo | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ Consadole Sapporo | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kashima and Ventforet Kofu.
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Sagan Tosu0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu?
Our pick is Kashima to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu?
On our numbers Kashima have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ventforet Kofu 7%.
How many goals will there be in Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu?
Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu (Emperor Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercari Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.