Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Luis TroccoliCerro vs Racing Montevideo prediction & analysis
Racing Montevideo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cerro 0.6 – 1.5 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Racing Montevideo shade it despite being away from home – 59% to win, against 16% for Cerro.
Cerro have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Racing Montevideo have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. Racing Montevideo come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.6 for Cerro, 1.5 for Racing Montevideo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (18%), 0–2 (14%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 2 meetings, Cerro have won 1, Racing Montevideo have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.19. For a bigger price, Racing Montevideo to win at 1.85 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Racing Montevideo to win ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Racing Montevideo or draw ✗ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo ✗ | 35% | 2.83 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 18% | 5.49 | – |
Form
Cerro – last 6
| 1 Sep | @ Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Boston River | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Albion FC | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Danubio | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Aug | @ Defensor Sporting | 1–2 | L |
Racing Montevideo – last 6
| 4 Sep | @ Oriental | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Albion FC | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Danubio | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Club Nacional | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Aug | @ Deportivo Maldonado | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs Boston River | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 2026 | Cerro v Racing Montevideo | 1–0 |
| 8 Mar 2026 | Racing Montevideo v Cerro | 1–0 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Racing Montevideo 59%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.