Value bet: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win @ 1.90 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win ✗62% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.34
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.71
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.73
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II preview and prediction
The match
The Second League Group 4 sees Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod take on Krylya Sovetov II on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod are 3rd with 43 points from 22 games (in the top four), while Krylya Sovetov II sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Dinamo Barnaul 2–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Krylya Sovetov II's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Khimik Dzerzhinsk 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 September 2026, finished Krylya Sovetov II 0–1 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod. Across their last 3 meetings Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod have won 2, Krylya Sovetov II 0, with 1 draw and 1.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod and 0.9 for Krylya Sovetov II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win at 1.90 – 62% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 2–0 Krylya Sovetov II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod62%fair 1.60 · @1.90
Draw18%fair 5.52 · @3.83
Krylya Sovetov II19%fair 5.14 · @3.80
2.81Expected goals
1.90Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod xG
0.91Krylya Sovetov II xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1.9 – 0.9 Krylya Sovetov II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win✗
62%
1.60
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.34 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.71
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.33
Half-time result
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod / FT Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod✗
What is the prediction for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II?
On our numbers Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Krylya Sovetov II 19%.
How many goals will there be in Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II?
Our predicted score is Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 2–0 Krylya Sovetov II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II?
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II (Second League Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
