Value bet: Ario Eslamshahr to win @ 3.22 – our chance 43% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +38%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArio Eslamshahr to win ✓43% · @3.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓17% · fair 5.94
Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr preview and prediction
The match
The Azadegan League sees Naft Gachsaran take on Ario Eslamshahr on Tuesday 22 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). Naft Gachsaran are 8th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Ario Eslamshahr sit 7th on 13 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Naft Gachsaran's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Be'sat Kermanshah 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ario Eslamshahr's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Ario Eslamshahr arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Naft Gachsaran and 1.0 for Ario Eslamshahr. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely.
Value angle: Ario Eslamshahr to win at 3.22 – 43% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.32. Predicted score: Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naft Gachsaran33%fair 3.01 · @2.22
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.77
Ario Eslamshahr43%fair 2.34 · @3.22
1.73Expected goals
0.78Naft Gachsaran xG
0.95Ario Eslamshahr xG
48%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
0–117%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Naft Gachsaran 0.8 – 1.0 Ario Eslamshahr expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ario Eslamshahr to win✓
43%
2.34
3.22 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.32
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.06
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
17%
5.94
–
Form
Naft Gachsaran – last 6
DLDLLL
16 Sep
@ Be'sat Kermanshah
0–0
D
16 Jul
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
0–2
L
11 Jul
@ Havadar
2–2
D
3 Jul
vs Mes Soongoun
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Nassaji Mazandaran
0–3
L
21 Jun
@ Shenavarsazi Qeshm
2–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ario Eslamshahr – last 6
LWDDWL
16 Sep
vs Naft Masjed Soleyman
0–3
L
17 Jul
@ Nassaji Mazandaran
2–1
W
11 Jul
vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1–1
D
3 Jul
@ Damash Gilanian
1–1
D
27 Jun
vs Be'sat Kermanshah
2–0
W
21 Jun
@ Saipa
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft Gachsaran and Ario Eslamshahr.
What is the prediction for Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
On our numbers Naft Gachsaran have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ario Eslamshahr 43%.
How many goals will there be in Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Our predicted score is Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr (Azadegan League) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
