Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Cerro to win @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerro to win ✗51% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.55
Cerro vs Cerrito preview and prediction
The match
Cerrito travel to face Cerro in the Copa Uruguay on Thursday 10 September (20:00 WAT).
Form guide
Cerro's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Racing Montevideo 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Cerrito's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Paysandu 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cerro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Cerro and 0.8 for Cerrito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro 51%, draw 23%, Cerrito 27%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Cerro to win at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Cerro 1–1 Cerrito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro51%fair 1.97 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.00
Cerrito27%fair 3.75 · @3.25
2.15Expected goals
1.32Cerro xG
0.84Cerrito xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
2–010%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.3 – 0.8 Cerrito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro to win✗
51%
1.97
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro / FT Cerro✗
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.55
–
Form
Cerro – last 6
WDDLWW
6 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Boston River
1–1
D
21 Aug
@ Liverpool Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Aug
vs Albion FC
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Danubio
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cerrito – last 6
LLLWDL
5 Sep
vs Paysandu
1–2
L
2 Sep
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Sportivo Huracan
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Uruguay Montevideo
3–0
W
14 Aug
vs Oriental
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Colón
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Cerrito.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Cerro vs Cerrito?
On our numbers Cerro have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerrito 27%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Cerrito?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Cerrito?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Cerrito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Cerrito?
Cerro vs Cerrito (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportivo Maldonado4
Wanderers1