Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Vaqueros Reynosa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Vaqueros Reynosa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVaqueros Reynosa to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceVaqueros Reynosa or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.53
Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo preview and prediction
The match
Mineros de Fresnillo travel to face Vaqueros Reynosa in the Liga Premier Serie A on Sunday 27 September (01:00 WAT). Vaqueros Reynosa are 6th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Mineros de Fresnillo sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Vaqueros Reynosa's last 4: LDWW Most recently they lost to La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 1–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Mineros de Fresnillo's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Héroes de Zaci 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Vaqueros Reynosa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Vaqueros Reynosa and 0.6 for Mineros de Fresnillo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Safer route: Vaqueros Reynosa or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Vaqueros Reynosa to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vaqueros Reynosa or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vaqueros Reynosa 1–0 Mineros de Fresnillo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vaqueros Reynosa61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.00
Mineros de Fresnillo17%fair 6.01 · @3.70
2.13Expected goals
1.52Vaqueros Reynosa xG
0.61Mineros de Fresnillo xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Vaqueros Reynosa 1.5 – 0.6 Mineros de Fresnillo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vaqueros Reynosa to win✓
61%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Vaqueros Reynosa or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vaqueros Reynosa / FT Vaqueros Reynosa✓
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.53
–
Form
Vaqueros Reynosa – last 4
LDWW
20 Sep
@ La Tribu de Cd. Juarez
1–2
L
15 Sep
vs Héroes de Zaci
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Guerreros
4–3
W
30 Aug
vs FC Santiago
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mineros de Fresnillo – last 6
LDDDLL
19 Sep
@ Héroes de Zaci
0–2
L
5 Sep
@ Correcaminos UAT II
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Real Apodaca
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Cimarrones
1–1
D
11 Apr
@ Durango
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Los Cabos United
2–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vaqueros Reynosa and Mineros de Fresnillo.
What is the prediction for Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Our pick is Vaqueros Reynosa or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
On our numbers Vaqueros Reynosa have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mineros de Fresnillo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Our predicted score is Vaqueros Reynosa 1–0 Mineros de Fresnillo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
