Value bet: Aluminium Arak to win @ 3.62 – our chance 39% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +43%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAluminium Arak to win ✗39% · @3.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.51
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.90
Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak preview and prediction
The match
Fajr Sepasi host Aluminium Arak in the Persian Gulf Pro League on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Hafezieh Stadium. Fajr Sepasi are 7th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Aluminium Arak sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fajr Sepasi's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Sepahan FC 1–6 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aluminium Arak's last 5: DDWDD Most recently they drew with Malavan 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Fajr Sepasi and 1.0 for Aluminium Arak. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Aluminium Arak to win at 3.62 – 39% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Fajr Sepasi 0–1 Aluminium Arak. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fajr Sepasi35%fair 2.85 · @2.01
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.90
Aluminium Arak39%fair 2.54 · @3.62
1.94Expected goals
0.93Fajr Sepasi xG
1.01Aluminium Arak xG
48%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–113%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Fajr Sepasi 0.9 – 1.0 Aluminium Arak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aluminium Arak to win✗
39%
2.54
3.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.51
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.58
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.07
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.90
–
Form
Fajr Sepasi – last 6
LLDDWD
8 Oct
@ Sepahan FC
1–6
L
7 Sep
@ Foolad FC
0–1
L
3 Sep
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs ZOB Ahan
0–0
D
24 Aug
@ Malavan
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Sanat Naft
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Aluminium Arak – last 6
DDWDDD
8 Oct
vs Malavan
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Esteghlal FC
0–0
D
1 Sep
@ Gol Gohar
2–0
W
28 Aug
vs Kheybar Khorramabad
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Shams Azar Qazvin
2–2
D
18 Aug
vs Chadormalu SC
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fajr Sepasi and Aluminium Arak.
What is the prediction for Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
On our numbers Fajr Sepasi have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aluminium Arak 39%.
How many goals will there be in Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
Our predicted score is Fajr Sepasi 0–1 Aluminium Arak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Hafezieh Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
