Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞahdağ to win ✓66% · @1.60
Double chanceŞahdağ or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.83
Şimal vs Şahdağ preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees Şimal take on Şahdağ on Thursday 17 September, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT). Şimal are 6th with 8 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while Şahdağ sit 2nd on 15 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Şimal's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with MOIK 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Şahdağ's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Karvan 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Şahdağ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Şahdağ 1–0 Şimal. Across their last 2 meetings Şimal have won 0, Şahdağ 2, with 0 draws and 1.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.5 for Şimal and 1.5 for Şahdağ. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şimal 14%, draw 20%, Şahdağ 66%.
Safer route: Şahdağ or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Şahdağ to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Şimal 0–1 Şahdağ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şimal14%fair 7.22 · @4.80
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.40
Şahdağ66%fair 1.51 · @1.60
2.00Expected goals
0.47Şimal xG
1.53Şahdağ xG
43%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–216%
0–014%
1–110%
0–38%
1–27%
From our goals model: Şimal 0.5 – 1.5 Şahdağ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Şahdağ to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Şimal vs Şahdağ?
On our numbers Şimal have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Şahdağ 66%.
How many goals will there be in Şimal vs Şahdağ?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şimal vs Şahdağ?
Our predicted score is Şimal 0–1 Şahdağ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Şimal vs Şahdağ?
Şimal vs Şahdağ (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
