Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.66 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pakhtakor 0.8 – 2.2 Al-Nassr expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Al-Nassr travel as clear favourites – 70% to win, against 14% for Pakhtakor.
Pakhtakor have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Al-Nassr have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Al-Nassr come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (0.8 for Pakhtakor, 2.2 for Al-Nassr). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.66 is close to our fair price of 1.69.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Al-Nassr to win ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| Double chance | Al-Nassr or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | 1.79 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.37 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.66 |
| Half-time result | Al-Nassr ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Al-Nassr / FT Al-Nassr ✓ | 46% | 2.20 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 12% | 8.57 | – |
Form
Pakhtakor – last 6
| 30 Oct | @ Xorazm | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Oct | vs Neftchi | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Navbahor | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Bunyodkor | 3–1 | W |
Al-Nassr – last 6
| 29 Oct | vs Al Kholood | 5–3 | W |
| 23 Oct | @ Al-Faisaly FC | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs NEOM | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Neftchi | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Al Diriyah | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | @ Al Ain | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pakhtakor and Al-Nassr.
AFC Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Ain | 4 | +11 | 12 |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Esteghlal FC | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 |  Al-Nassr | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 |  Al Shamal | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 |  Neftchi | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 |  Al-Wasl FC | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Tractor Sazi | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 |  Pakhtakor | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 |  Al Sadd | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 |  Al-Gharafa | 4 | -8 | 0 |
More AFC Champions League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.66.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr?
On our numbers Pakhtakor have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Al-Nassr 70%.
How many goals will there be in Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr?
Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr (AFC Champions League) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 14:45 (West Africa Time) at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.