Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✓57% · @1.90
Double chanceBoca Juniors or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.61
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Boca Juniors take on Sao Paulo on Wednesday 9 September, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Alberto J. Armando.
Form guide
Boca Juniors's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Gimnasia M. 2–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sao Paulo's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Atletico-MG 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.4 for Boca Juniors and 0.7 for Sao Paulo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Boca Juniors 57%, draw 25%, Sao Paulo 18%.
Safer route: Boca Juniors or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 51% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boca Juniors57%fair 1.77 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.10
Sao Paulo18%fair 5.45 · @4.55
2.07Expected goals
1.42Boca Juniors xG
0.66Sao Paulo xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–013%
0–013%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Boca Juniors 1.4 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Juniors to win✓
57%
1.77
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors✗
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.61
–
Form
Boca Juniors – last 6
DDWDWD
5 Sep
@ Gimnasia M.
2–2
D
3 Sep
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Lanus
1–0
W
24 Aug
@ Racing Club
1–1
D
18 Aug
@ Deportivo Recoleta
4–0
W
16 Aug
@ Platense
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
WWLWDD
5 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–1
L
19 Aug
vs Bolívar
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Coritiba
1–1
D
12 Aug
@ Bolívar
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo.
What is the prediction for Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Boca Juniors have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sao Paulo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alberto J. Armando.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Santos2
Atletico-MG0