Santos vs Atletico-MG prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 1.1 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Santos hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 33% for Atletico-MG.
Santos have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Atletico-MG have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.4 for Santos, 1.1 for Atletico-MG). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Santos have won 1, Atletico-MG have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.30.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Santos to win ✓ | 44% | 2.25 | 2.32 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Santos / FT Santos ✓ | 25% | 4.06 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.79 | – |
Form
Santos – last 6
| 6 Sep | @ Internacional | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Corinthians | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Aug | @ Palmeiras | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Aug | @ Macara | 0–0 | D |
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Internacional | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Aug | vs RB Bragantino | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 2026 | Santos v Atletico-MG | 1–0 |
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico-MG | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 |  Cienciano | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Juventud | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 |  Puerto Cabello | 6 | -3 | 7 |
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
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Sao Paulo0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Santos vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Santos have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico-MG 33%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Santos vs Atletico-MG?
Santos vs Atletico-MG (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.