Value bet: Fgura United to win @ 2.40 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFgura United to win ✗46% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.97
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.80
Fgura United vs Santa Lucía preview and prediction
The match
The Challenge League sees Fgura United take on Santa Lucía on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT). Fgura United are 4th with 15 points from 7 games (in the top four), while Santa Lucía sit 13th on 6 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fgura United's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Victoria Hotspurs 3–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Santa Lucía's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Zurrieq 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Fgura United and 1.1 for Santa Lucía. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fgura United 46%, draw 20%, Santa Lucía 33%.
Value angle: Fgura United to win at 2.40 – 46% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 50% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.99, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fgura United 1–1 Santa Lucía. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fgura United46%fair 2.16 · @2.40
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.40
Santa Lucía33%fair 3.01 · @2.40
2.50Expected goals
1.39Fgura United xG
1.11Santa Lucía xG
49%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Fgura United 1.4 – 1.1 Santa Lucía expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fgura United to win✗
46%
2.16
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
2.05
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fgura United / FT Fgura United✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.80
–
Form
Fgura United – last 6
WDWDLL
10 Oct
@ Victoria Hotspurs
3–0
W
19 Sep
vs Sirens
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Zebbug Rangers
4–0
W
19 Apr
@ Swieqi United
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Sirens
2–3
L
10 Mar
vs Balzan FC
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Santa Lucía – last 6
DDDDDD
11 Oct
vs Zurrieq
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ St. Andrews
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Vittoriosa Stars
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Mgarr United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Vittoriosa Stars
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Zebbug Rangers
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fgura United and Santa Lucía.
What is the prediction for Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
On our numbers Fgura United have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Santa Lucía 33%.
How many goals will there be in Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
Our predicted score is Fgura United 1–1 Santa Lucía, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
Fgura United vs Santa Lucía (Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
