FKF Premier League · KenyaMathare United vs Tusker prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.6 – 0.7 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Mathare United and Tusker on our numbers – 35% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Mathare United have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Tusker have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. Tusker come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.4 goals (0.6 for Mathare United, 0.7 for Tusker). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (26%), 0–1 (19%), 1–0 (16%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is better than our fair price of 1.30, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tusker to win ✗ | 39% | 2.54 | 2.60 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 95% | 1.05 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 32% | 3.09 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 19% | 5.40 | – |
Form
Mathare United – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ KCB | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs APS Bomet | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Oct | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Migori Youth | 0–0 | D |
| 31 May | vs Bandari | 1–0 | W |
| 23 May | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–2 | L |
Tusker – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Singida Black Stars | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Singida Black Stars | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Ulinzi Stars | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Mara Sugar | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Al Ahli Wad Medani | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Al Ahli Wad Medani | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and Tusker.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs Tusker?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mathare United vs Tusker?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tusker 39%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs Tusker?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 33% of the time on our projection.
When is Mathare United vs Tusker?
Mathare United vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.