Migori Youth vs Mathare United prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Mathare United to win @ 2.80 – our chance 47% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMathare United to win ✗47% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.49
Migori Youth vs Mathare United preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Migori Youth take on Mathare United on Friday 11 September, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT). Migori Youth are 12th with 6 points from 5 games (in the bottom half), while Mathare United sit 16th on 5 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Migori Youth's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with 3K 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Mathare United's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Bandari 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Migori Youth arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Migori Youth and 1.2 for Mathare United. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Migori Youth 29%, draw 24%, Mathare United 47%.
Value angle: Mathare United to win at 2.80 – 47% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Migori Youth 0–1 Mathare United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Migori Youth29%fair 3.43 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.80
Mathare United47%fair 2.13 · @2.80
2.05Expected goals
0.85Migori Youth xG
1.20Mathare United xG
42%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–013%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Migori Youth 0.9 – 1.2 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mathare United to win✗
47%
2.13
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mathare United / FT Mathare United✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.49
–
Form
Migori Youth – last 6
DWWWWL
13 Jun
@ 3K
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Equity Bank
2–1
W
1 Jun
@ Kisumu All Stars
1–0
W
27 May
vs MCF
2–1
W
23 May
vs Kibera Black Stars
1–0
W
17 May
@ Fortune Sacco
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mathare United – last 6
WLLDDL
31 May
vs Bandari
1–0
W
23 May
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–2
L
10 May
vs APS Bomet
0–2
L
2 May
@ Sofapaka
2–2
D
14 Apr
vs Police
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Homeboyz
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Migori Youth and Mathare United.
What is the prediction for Migori Youth vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Migori Youth vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Migori Youth have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mathare United 47%.
How many goals will there be in Migori Youth vs Mathare United?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Migori Youth vs Mathare United?
Our predicted score is Migori Youth 0–1 Mathare United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Migori Youth vs Mathare United?
Migori Youth vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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