FKF Premier League · Kenya
Mombasa Elite vs Police prediction & analysis
Police or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 56% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +68%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 0.9 – 1.2 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Police shade it despite being away from home – 28% to win, against 16% for Mombasa Elite, with the draw at 56%.
Mombasa Elite have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.5 per game. Police have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Mombasa Elite come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.9 for Mombasa Elite, 1.2 for Police). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Police or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.00 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Police or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Police / FT Police ✗ | 24% | 4.23 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.51 | – |
Form
Mombasa Elite – last 6
| 13 Jun | @ Naivas | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Nzoia Sugar | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Jun | @ Luanda Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 27 May | vs 3K | 0–0 | D |
| 24 May | @ Mwatate United | 1–0 | W |
| 17 May | vs Nairobi City Stars | 2–1 | W |
Police – last 6
| 14 Jun | @ Tusker | 1–2 | L |
| 31 May | vs Homeboyz | 1–1 | D |
| 27 May | vs Kariobangi Sharks | 1–1 | D |
| 24 May | @ Nairobi United | 0–0 | D |
| 10 May | @ GOR Mahia | 1–1 | D |
| 6 May | vs Murang'a SEAL | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Police.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Police?
Our pick is Police or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Police?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Police 28%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Police?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Police?
Mombasa Elite vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.