Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.83 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.83Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultTusker to win ✓63% · @1.83
Double chanceTusker or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 5.11
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Ulinzi Stars take on Tusker on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Ulinzi Stars are 14th with 6 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while Tusker sit 11th on 6 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ulinzi Stars's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Mathare United 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tusker's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Mara Sugar 3–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 May 2026, finished Ulinzi Stars 2–0 Tusker. Across their last 2 meetings Ulinzi Stars have won 1, Tusker 1, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.5 for Ulinzi Stars and 1.5 for Tusker. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Our pre-match pick was Tusker to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ulinzi Stars14%fair 7.13 · @4.33
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @2.90
Tusker63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
2.05Expected goals
0.53Ulinzi Stars xG
1.52Tusker xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–120%
0–215%
0–013%
1–110%
1–28%
0–38%
From our goals model: Ulinzi Stars 0.5 – 1.5 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Our pick is Tusker to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
On our numbers Ulinzi Stars have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tusker 63%.
How many goals will there be in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Police1