Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Police to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPolice to win ✗58% · @1.91
Double chancePolice or draw ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.75
Migori Youth vs Police preview and prediction
The match
Migori Youth host Police in the FKF Premier League on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Migori Youth's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Mombasa Elite 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Police's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Shabana 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Migori Youth arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.7 for Migori Youth and 1.4 for Police. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Police to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Migori Youth 0–1 Police. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Migori Youth19%fair 5.18 · @4.20
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @2.88
Police58%fair 1.74 · @1.91
2.12Expected goals
0.67Migori Youth xG
1.44Police xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–213%
0–012%
1–112%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Migori Youth 0.7 – 1.4 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Police to win✗
58%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Police or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Police / FT Police✗
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.75
–
Form
Migori Youth – last 6
WDDWWW
2 Oct
vs Mombasa Elite
2–0
W
11 Sep
vs Mathare United
0–0
D
13 Jun
@ 3K
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Equity Bank
2–1
W
1 Jun
@ Kisumu All Stars
1–0
W
27 May
vs MCF
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Police – last 6
WDLDDD
2 Oct
@ Shabana
1–0
W
11 Sep
@ Mombasa Elite
0–0
D
14 Jun
@ Tusker
1–2
L
31 May
vs Homeboyz
1–1
D
27 May
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
24 May
@ Nairobi United
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Migori Youth and Police.
What is the prediction for Migori Youth vs Police?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Migori Youth vs Police?
On our numbers Migori Youth have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Police 58%.
How many goals will there be in Migori Youth vs Police?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Migori Youth vs Police?
Our predicted score is Migori Youth 0–1 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Migori Youth vs Police?
Migori Youth vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
