Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Cremonese to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultParma to win ✗41% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.76
Parma vs Cremonese preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia sees Parma take on Cremonese on Tuesday 1 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Form guide
Parma's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Juventus 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Cremonese's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Modena 0–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Parma and 1.0 for Cremonese. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Parma 41%, draw 24%, Cremonese 35%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Cremonese to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Parma 1–1 Cremonese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Parma41%fair 2.44 · @2.14
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Cremonese35%fair 2.87 · @3.40
2.20Expected goals
1.16Parma xG
1.04Cremonese xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Parma 1.2 – 1.0 Cremonese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Parma to win✗
41%
2.44
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Parma / FT Parma✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.76
–
Form
Parma – last 6
LLWLDD
29 Aug
@ Juventus
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Cagliari
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Catania
2–0
W
9 Aug
vs Sampdoria
0–2
L
2 Aug
vs Iraklis 1908
1–1
D
30 Jul
vs Arezzo
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cremonese – last 6
LLWDDW
28 Aug
vs Modena
0–3
L
22 Aug
@ Empoli
0–1
L
17 Aug
vs Sampdoria
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Lumezzane
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Cittadella
1–1
D
24 Jul
vs Giana Erminio
4–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Parma and Cremonese.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Parma vs Cremonese?
On our numbers Parma have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cremonese 35%.
How many goals will there be in Parma vs Cremonese?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Cremonese?
Our predicted score is Parma 1–1 Cremonese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Parma vs Cremonese?
Parma vs Cremonese (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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