USA vs Canada prediction & analysis
USA or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: USA 2.0 – 1.1 Canada expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
USA hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 19% for Canada.
USA have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.7 per game. Canada have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.0 for USA, 1.1 for Canada). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).
Our pick is USA or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.23.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | USA to win ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.73 |
| Double chance | USA or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Half-time result | USA ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT USA / FT USA ✓ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.06 | – |
Form
USA – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Mexico | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Chile | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Peru | 4–1 | W |
| 7 Jul | vs Belgium | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Jul | vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Jun | @ Türkiye | 2–3 | L |
Canada – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Peru | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Chile | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Jul | vs Morocco | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Jun | @ South Africa | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Jun | @ Switzerland | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Jun | vs Qatar | 6–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Canada.
More Friendlies predictions
League hub
Argentina3
Benin0
Colombia2
Peru0
Mexico0
Chile2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for USA vs Canada?
Our pick is USA or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win USA vs Canada?
On our numbers USA have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Canada 19%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Canada?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is USA vs Canada?
USA vs Canada (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.