Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovara to win ✗39% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.34
Novara vs Livorno preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia Serie C sees Novara take on Livorno on Thursday 3 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Form guide
Novara's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Folgore Caratese 2–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Livorno's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Pineto 0–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Livorno arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Novara and 1.2 for Livorno. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Novara 39%, draw 24%, Livorno 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Novara 1–1 Livorno. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novara39%fair 2.54 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Livorno37%fair 2.71 · @2.50
2.46Expected goals
1.26Novara xG
1.21Livorno xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Novara 1.3 – 1.2 Livorno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✗
39%
2.54
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novara / FT Novara✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.34
–
Form
Novara – last 6
DLWLWL
31 Aug
vs Folgore Caratese
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Juventus U23
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Alcione
1–0
W
5 Aug
@ Virtus Entella
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Sampdoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Cittadella
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Livorno – last 6
DWWDWW
29 Aug
@ Pineto
0–0
D
24 Aug
vs Torres
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Reggiana
3–1
W
8 Aug
vs Empoli
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Cittadella Vis Modena
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Pontedera
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Livorno.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Novara vs Livorno?
On our numbers Novara have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Livorno 37%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Livorno?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Livorno?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–1 Livorno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Livorno?
Novara vs Livorno (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cittadella4
Renate1
Trento0
Desenzano Calvina1