Coppa Italia Serie C · Italy · Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
Cittadella vs Renate prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 58% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cittadella 2.0 – 1.7 Renate expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cittadella hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Renate.
Cittadella have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Renate have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded. Cittadella come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.7 goals (2.0 for Cittadella, 1.7 for Renate). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 1–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%).
In their last 2 meetings, Cittadella have won 2, Renate have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cittadella to win ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.33 ▲ |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Cittadella ahead at half-time ✓ | 37% | 2.70 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cittadella / FT Cittadella ✓ | 29% | 3.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 11.85 | – |
Form
Cittadella – last 6
| 31 Aug | @ Renate | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Pergolettese | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Atalanta II | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Luparense | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Padova | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Jul | @ Cremonese | 1–1 | D |
Renate – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Cittadella | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | @ Alcione | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Lumezzane | 2–2 | D |
| 13 May | vs Casarano | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | @ Trento | 3–3 | D |
| 13 Apr | vs PRO Vercelli | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 31 Aug 2026 | Renate v Cittadella | 0–1 |
| 16 Feb 2026 | Cittadella v Renate | 2–1 |
More Coppa Italia Serie C predictions
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Desenzano Calvina1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cittadella vs Renate?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Cittadella vs Renate?
On our numbers Cittadella have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Renate 32%.
How many goals will there be in Cittadella vs Renate?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Cittadella vs Renate?
Cittadella vs Renate (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.