Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultGenoa to win ✓64% · @1.62
Double chanceGenoa or draw ✓89% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.85
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 14.50
Genoa vs Sudtirol preview and prediction
The match
Sudtirol travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris in the Coppa Italia on Tuesday 15 September (17:00 WAT) to face Genoa.
Form guide
Genoa's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Frosinone 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sudtirol's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Modena 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sudtirol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.0 goals: 3.3 for Genoa and 1.7 for Sudtirol. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genoa 64%, draw 25%, Sudtirol 11%.
Safer route: Genoa or draw (89%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Genoa 3–1 Sudtirol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genoa64%fair 1.56 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.60
Sudtirol11%fair 8.87 · @5.00
5.00Expected goals
3.32Genoa xG
1.68Sudtirol xG
62%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–17%
2–16%
3–26%
4–16%
2–25%
4–25%
From our goals model: Genoa 3.3 – 1.7 Sudtirol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Genoa to win✓
64%
1.56
1.62
Double chance
Genoa or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Genoa ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Genoa / FT Genoa✗
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
14.50
–
Form
Genoa – last 6
DLLLWL
12 Sep
vs Frosinone
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Como
1–4
L
30 Aug
@ Lazio
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Napoli
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Ascoli
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sudtirol – last 6
DWDWDW
12 Sep
vs Modena
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Catanzaro
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Benevento
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Catanzaro
2–2
D
7 Aug
vs Virtus Verona
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and Sudtirol.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Genoa vs Sudtirol?
On our numbers Genoa have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sudtirol 11%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Sudtirol?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Our predicted score is Genoa 3–1 Sudtirol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Genoa vs Sudtirol (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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