Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
1
Value bet: Lajense to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLajense to win ✗45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Lajense vs 1º Dezembro preview and prediction
The match
1º Dezembro travel to face Lajense in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D on Sunday 11 October (12:00 WAT).
Form guide
Lajense's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Juventude Évora 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
1º Dezembro's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Amora 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.8 for Lajense and 1.5 for 1º Dezembro. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lajense 45%, draw 23%, 1º Dezembro 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Lajense to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lajense 1–1 1º Dezembro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lajense45%fair 2.20 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @2.88
1º Dezembro31%fair 3.20 · @2.50
3.29Expected goals
1.81Lajense xG
1.481º Dezembro xG
62%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–27%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Lajense 1.8 – 1.5 1º Dezembro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lajense to win✗
45%
2.20
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lajense / FT Lajense✗
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.05
–
Form
Lajense – last 6
WLLDLL
4 Oct
vs Juventude Évora
2–0
W
27 Sep
@ Amora
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Fafe
0–4
L
13 Sep
@ Real
5–5
D
6 Sep
vs Vitoria Setubal
0–1
L
4 Apr
@ Naval 1893
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
1º Dezembro – last 6
DDLLLL
13 Sep
vs Amora
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ FC Serpa
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Real
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Imortal Albufeira
0–5
L
19 Apr
vs Amora
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Atlético CP
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lajense and 1º Dezembro.
What is the prediction for Lajense vs 1º Dezembro?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lajense vs 1º Dezembro?
On our numbers Lajense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and 1º Dezembro 31%.
How many goals will there be in Lajense vs 1º Dezembro?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lajense vs 1º Dezembro?
Our predicted score is Lajense 1–1 1º Dezembro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Lajense vs 1º Dezembro?
Lajense vs 1º Dezembro (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amora1
Lagoa1
FC Serpa2
Sintrense0