Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAmora to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceAmora or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.32
Amora vs Lagoa preview and prediction
The match
Lagoa travel to Medideira Stadium in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D on Sunday 11 October (15:00 WAT) to face Amora.
Form guide
Amora's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Lajense 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Lagoa's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Atlético CP 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Amora and 0.5 for Lagoa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Amora 65%, draw 23%, Lagoa 12%.
Safer route: Amora or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Amora to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Amora 1–0 Lagoa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Amora65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.50
Lagoa12%fair 8.16 · @4.00
2.16Expected goals
1.63Amora xG
0.53Lagoa xG
40%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Amora 1.6 – 0.5 Lagoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Amora to win✗
65%
1.54
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Amora or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Amora / FT Amora✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.32
–
Form
Amora – last 6
WLDLWD
27 Sep
vs Lajense
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs UD da Serra
3–4
L
13 Sep
@ 1º Dezembro
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Real
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Vitoria Setubal
3–1
W
1 May
@ SC Covilha
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lagoa – last 6
LDWLDD
19 Sep
@ Atlético CP
1–4
L
13 Sep
vs FC Serpa
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Santa Clara B
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Imortal Albufeira
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Aljustrelense
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Atlético Malveira
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amora and Lagoa.
Our pick is Amora to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Amora vs Lagoa?
On our numbers Amora have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lagoa 12%.
How many goals will there be in Amora vs Lagoa?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amora vs Lagoa?
Our predicted score is Amora 1–0 Lagoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Amora vs Lagoa?
Amora vs Lagoa (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Medideira Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lajense0
1º Dezembro1
FC Serpa2
Sintrense0