Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Besëlidhja Lezhë to win @ 1.91 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBesëlidhja Lezhë to win ✓64% · @1.91
Double chanceBesëlidhja Lezhë or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.63
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.77
Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë preview and prediction
The match
The 1st Division sees Besëlidhja Lezhë take on Kastrioti Krujë on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 12:30 (WAT). Besëlidhja Lezhë are 7th with 14 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Kastrioti Krujë sit 9th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Besëlidhja Lezhë's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Burreli 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Kastrioti Krujë's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Oriku 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Kastrioti Krujë arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Besëlidhja Lezhë and 0.6 for Kastrioti Krujë. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 39%.
Safer route: Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Besëlidhja Lezhë to win at 1.91 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Besëlidhja Lezhë 1–0 Kastrioti Krujë. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Besëlidhja Lezhë64%fair 1.57 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.25
Kastrioti Krujë15%fair 6.81 · @3.50
2.25Expected goals
1.64Besëlidhja Lezhë xG
0.61Kastrioti Krujë xG
39%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Besëlidhja Lezhë 1.6 – 0.6 Kastrioti Krujë expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Besëlidhja Lezhë to win✓
64%
1.57
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Besëlidhja Lezhë / FT Besëlidhja Lezhë✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.77
–
Form
Besëlidhja Lezhë – last 6
DDWDLL
11 Oct
@ Burreli
0–0
D
6 Oct
vs Sopoti Librazhd
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Besa Kavajë
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Bylis
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Korabi Peshkopi
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ FK Kukesi
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kastrioti Krujë – last 6
WWDWLD
11 Oct
vs Oriku
2–0
W
7 Oct
vs Luzi 2008
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Sopoti Librazhd
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Flamurtari
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Pogradeci
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Burreli
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Besëlidhja Lezhë and Kastrioti Krujë.
What is the prediction for Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
Our pick is Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
On our numbers Besëlidhja Lezhë have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kastrioti Krujë 15%.
How many goals will there be in Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
Our predicted score is Besëlidhja Lezhë 1–0 Kastrioti Krujë, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
