Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultErbil to win ✗64% · @1.60
Double chanceErbil or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.58
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63% · @1.65
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.80
Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal preview and prediction
The match
Erbil host Ghaz Al Shamal in the Iraqi League on Saturday 31 October, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Franso Hariri Stadium. Erbil are 7th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Ghaz Al Shamal sit 10th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Erbil's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Zakho 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Ghaz Al Shamal's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Naft Maysan 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ghaz Al Shamal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Erbil and 0.5 for Ghaz Al Shamal. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Erbil 64%, draw 23%, Ghaz Al Shamal 13%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Erbil to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Erbil 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Erbil64%fair 1.56 · @1.60
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.50
Ghaz Al Shamal13%fair 7.67 · @5.00
1.97Expected goals
1.50Erbil xG
0.48Ghaz Al Shamal xG
37%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–016%
0–014%
1–110%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Erbil 1.5 – 0.5 Ghaz Al Shamal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erbil to win✗
64%
1.56
1.60
Double chance
Erbil or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erbil / FT Erbil✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.80
–
Form
Erbil – last 6
LLLDWL
22 Oct
@ Zakho
1–2
L
17 Oct
vs Mosul
0–1
L
14 Oct
@ Ajman
4–5
L
8 Oct
@ Naft Maysan
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ Karbala
3–0
W
14 Sep
vs Al-Karma
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 6
WWLDDD
24 Oct
vs Naft Maysan
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Al Zawra'a
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Al Minaa Basra
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Newroz
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
8 Sep
@ Duhok
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erbil and Ghaz Al Shamal.
What is the prediction for Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our pick is Erbil to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
On our numbers Erbil have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ghaz Al Shamal 13%.
How many goals will there be in Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our predicted score is Erbil 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Franso Hariri Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
