Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Ghaz Al Shamal to win @ 3.60 – our chance 36% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Minaa Basra to win ✓40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.92
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal preview and prediction
The match
Ghaz Al Shamal travel to face Al Minaa Basra in the Iraqi League on Saturday 10 October (16:00 WAT). Al Minaa Basra are 9th with 17 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Ghaz Al Shamal sit 10th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al Minaa Basra's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Duhok 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Ghaz Al Shamal's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Newroz 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Al Minaa Basra and 0.9 for Ghaz Al Shamal. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Minaa Basra 40%, draw 25%, Ghaz Al Shamal 36%.
Value angle: Ghaz Al Shamal to win at 3.60 – 36% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Minaa Basra40%fair 2.52 · @2.00
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Ghaz Al Shamal36%fair 2.79 · @3.60
1.94Expected goals
1.01Al Minaa Basra xG
0.93Ghaz Al Shamal xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
0–014%
1–114%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Al Minaa Basra 1.0 – 0.9 Ghaz Al Shamal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Minaa Basra to win✓
40%
2.52
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.92
–
Form
Al Minaa Basra – last 6
DLDLLW
18 Sep
vs Duhok
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Al Kahrabaa
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs Naft Maysan
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Naft
0–3
L
31 Aug
@ Erbil
0–2
L
26 Aug
vs Gharraf
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 6
DDDLWD
19 Sep
vs Newroz
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
8 Sep
@ Duhok
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Al-Jolan SC
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Gharraf
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Minaa Basra and Ghaz Al Shamal.
What is the prediction for Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
On our numbers Al Minaa Basra have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ghaz Al Shamal 36%.
How many goals will there be in Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our predicted score is Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
