Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Naft to win @ 1.91 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNaft to win ✓64% · @1.91
Double chanceNaft or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.39
Naft vs Diyala preview and prediction
The match
The Iraqi League sees Naft take on Diyala on Friday 9 October, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT). Naft are 3rd with 25 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Diyala sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Naft's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Mosul 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Diyala's last 5: DWLLD Most recently they drew with Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Naft arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Naft and 0.7 for Diyala. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Naft 64%, draw 20%, Diyala 15%.
Safer route: Naft or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Value angle: Naft to win at 1.91 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Naft or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Naft 1–0 Diyala. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naft64%fair 1.55 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.10
Diyala15%fair 6.53 · @3.75
2.41Expected goals
1.74Naft xG
0.67Diyala xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Naft 1.7 – 0.7 Diyala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naft to win✓
64%
1.55
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Naft or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Naft ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naft / FT Naft✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.39
–
Form
Naft – last 6
WWLWDD
18 Sep
@ Mosul
1–0
W
14 Sep
vs Karbala
2–1
W
9 Sep
@ Al-Karma
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Al Minaa Basra
3–0
W
31 Aug
@ Al Talaba
0–0
D
26 Aug
vs Duhok
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Diyala – last 6
DWLLDD
19 Sep
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Gharraf
3–1
W
8 Sep
@ Erbil
0–2
L
3 Sep
vs Al-Karma
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Al-Jolan SC
3–3
D
25 Aug
@ Zakho
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft and Diyala.
Our pick is Naft or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Naft vs Diyala?
On our numbers Naft have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Diyala 15%.
How many goals will there be in Naft vs Diyala?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft vs Diyala?
Our predicted score is Naft 1–0 Diyala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Naft vs Diyala?
Naft vs Diyala (Iraqi League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
