Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Newroz to win @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewroz to win ✗52% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓65% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.86
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz preview and prediction
The match
Ghaz Al Shamal host Newroz in the Iraqi League on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT). Ghaz Al Shamal are 10th with 16 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Newroz sit 2nd on 26 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Ghaz Al Shamal's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Al Shorta 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Newroz's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Al-Jolan SC 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Newroz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.7 for Ghaz Al Shamal and 1.2 for Newroz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ghaz Al Shamal 26%, draw 22%, Newroz 52%.
Value angle: Newroz to win at 2.10 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Ghaz Al Shamal 0–1 Newroz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ghaz Al Shamal26%fair 3.85 · @3.25
Draw22%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Newroz52%fair 1.94 · @2.10
1.98Expected goals
0.74Ghaz Al Shamal xG
1.24Newroz xG
40%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–014%
1–113%
0–211%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ghaz Al Shamal 0.7 – 1.2 Newroz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newroz to win✗
52%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newroz / FT Newroz✗
28%
3.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.86
–
Form
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 6
DDLWDD
12 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
8 Sep
@ Duhok
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Al-Jolan SC
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Gharraf
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Al Kahrabaa
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Newroz – last 6
WWWDLL
14 Sep
@ Al-Jolan SC
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs Mosul
3–0
W
4 Sep
@ Naft Maysan
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs Duhok
0–0
D
26 Aug
@ Al Talaba
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Gharraf
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ghaz Al Shamal and Newroz.
What is the prediction for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
On our numbers Ghaz Al Shamal have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Newroz 52%.
How many goals will there be in Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
Our predicted score is Ghaz Al Shamal 0–1 Newroz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
