Value bet: Ghaz Al Shamal to win @ 2.40 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGhaz Al Shamal to win ✗46% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa preview and prediction
The match
Al Kahrabaa travel to face Ghaz Al Shamal in the Iraqi League on Thursday 20 August (16:30 WAT). Ghaz Al Shamal are 10th with 16 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Al Kahrabaa sit 18th on 11 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Al Kahrabaa's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Erbil 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Ghaz Al Shamal and 0.7 for Al Kahrabaa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ghaz Al Shamal 46%, draw 24%, Al Kahrabaa 30%.
Value angle: Ghaz Al Shamal to win at 2.40 – 46% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Kahrabaa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ghaz Al Shamal46%fair 2.18 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.80
Al Kahrabaa30%fair 3.30 · @2.90
1.78Expected goals
1.03Ghaz Al Shamal xG
0.75Al Kahrabaa xG
38%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–017%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ghaz Al Shamal 1.0 – 0.7 Al Kahrabaa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ghaz Al Shamal to win✗
46%
2.18
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.74
–
Form
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 1
L
15 Aug
@ Zakho
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al Kahrabaa – last 6
LWDWDL
16 Aug
@ Erbil
0–2
L
27 May
@ Duhok
2–1
W
19 May
vs Gharraf
2–2
D
11 May
vs Newroz
2–1
W
6 May
@ Erbil
2–2
D
27 Apr
vs Al Karkh
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ghaz Al Shamal and Al Kahrabaa.
What is the prediction for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa?
On our numbers Ghaz Al Shamal have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Al Kahrabaa 30%.
How many goals will there be in Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa?
Our predicted score is Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Kahrabaa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa?
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Kahrabaa (Iraqi League) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
