Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.16 – our chance 54% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarnese to win ✓63% · @1.39
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · fair 1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.16
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.27
Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra preview and prediction
The match
Sarnese host Sarrabus Ogliastra in the Serie D Girone G on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT). Sarnese are 1st with 26 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Sarrabus Ogliastra sit 15th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sarnese's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Aranova 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sarrabus Ogliastra's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Gelbison 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Sarnese arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Sarnese and 0.8 for Sarrabus Ogliastra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.16 – 54% on our numbers against 46% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.32. Predicted score: Sarnese 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarnese63%fair 1.59 · @1.39
Draw18%fair 5.63 · @4.10
Sarrabus Ogliastra19%fair 5.15 · @7.65
2.54Expected goals
1.75Sarnese xG
0.79Sarrabus Ogliastra xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sarnese 1.7 – 0.8 Sarrabus Ogliastra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarnese to win✓
63%
1.59
1.39
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.16 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.87
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.32
Half-time result
Sarnese ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarnese / FT Sarnese✓
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.27
–
Form
Sarnese – last 6
LWWWDW
25 Oct
@ Aranova
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Città di Anagni
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Atletico Lodigiani
1–0
W
4 Oct
vs Paganese
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Ossese
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Gelbison
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sarrabus Ogliastra – last 6
WLDLLD
25 Oct
vs Gelbison
3–0
W
18 Oct
@ Trastevere
2–3
L
11 Oct
vs Afragolese
0–0
D
7 Oct
@ Latte Dolce
0–3
L
4 Oct
@ Latte Dolce
0–1
L
27 Sep
vs Unipomezia
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarnese and Sarrabus Ogliastra.
What is the prediction for Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
On our numbers Sarnese have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sarrabus Ogliastra 19%.
How many goals will there be in Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Our predicted score is Sarnese 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Sarnese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
