Value bet: Paganese to win @ 2.88 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarnese to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.69
Sarnese vs Paganese preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone G sees Sarnese take on Paganese on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Sarnese are 1st with 26 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Paganese sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sarnese's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Ossese 2–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Paganese's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Gelbison 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Sarnese 1–1 Paganese.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Sarnese and 1.5 for Paganese. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sarnese 39%, draw 24%, Paganese 37%.
Value angle: Paganese to win at 2.88 – 37% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 52% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.91, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sarnese 2–1 Paganese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarnese39%fair 2.54 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.25
Paganese37%fair 2.71 · @2.88
2.98Expected goals
1.52Sarnese xG
1.46Paganese xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sarnese 1.5 – 1.5 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Sarnese vs Paganese?
On our numbers Sarnese have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paganese 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sarnese vs Paganese?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarnese vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Sarnese 2–1 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Sarnese vs Paganese?
Sarnese vs Paganese (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
