Value bet: Fossombrone to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFossombrone to win ✓39% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone F sees Sporting Trestina take on Fossombrone on Wednesday 16 September, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Sporting Trestina are 14th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Fossombrone sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sporting Trestina's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Lanciano FC 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Fossombrone's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to L'Aquila 0–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Sporting Trestina and 1.5 for Fossombrone. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 48% and both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Fossombrone to win at 2.88 – 39% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 52% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Sporting Trestina 1–1 Fossombrone. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting Trestina36%fair 2.75 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.00
Fossombrone39%fair 2.55 · @2.88
2.91Expected goals
1.42Sporting Trestina xG
1.49Fossombrone xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sporting Trestina 1.4 – 1.5 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fossombrone to win✓
39%
2.55
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fossombrone / FT Fossombrone✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.66
–
Form
Sporting Trestina – last 6
DLLDLD
13 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Vigor Senigallia
2–5
L
29 Jul
@ Gubbio
0–2
L
3 May
@ Robur Siena
4–4
D
26 Apr
vs Prato
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Sansepolcro
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fossombrone – last 6
LWLLDL
13 Sep
vs L'Aquila
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cesena
0–3
L
3 May
@ Recanatese
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Atletico Ascoli
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Victor San Marino
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Trestina and Fossombrone.
What is the prediction for Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Sporting Trestina have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fossombrone 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
Our predicted score is Sporting Trestina 1–1 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
