Serie D Girone F · Italy · Nicola TubaldiRecanatese vs Foligno Calcio prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Foligno Calcio to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Recanatese 0.9 – 1.1 Foligno Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Foligno Calcio shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 33% for Recanatese.
Recanatese have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 per game. Foligno Calcio have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.9 for Recanatese, 1.1 for Foligno Calcio). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Foligno Calcio to win at 2.40 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Foligno Calcio to win ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | 2.40 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Foligno Calcio / FT Foligno Calcio ✗ | 23% | 4.35 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 15% | 6.55 | – |
Form
Recanatese – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Santegidiese | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Pietralunga | 0–0 | D |
| 17 May | vs Victor San Marino | 4–1 | W |
| 3 May | vs Fossombrone | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Teramo | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | vs Sora | 2–0 | W |
Foligno Calcio – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Pietralunga | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Lanciano FC | 2–1 | W |
| 3 May | vs Cannara | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Seravezza | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | @ San Donato Tavarnelle | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Apr | @ Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Recanatese and Foligno Calcio.
Serie D Girone F table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Teramo | 11 | +13 | 26 |
| 2 |  L'Aquila | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ancona | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Foligno Calcio | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vigor Senigallia | 11 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Fossombrone | 11 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Montecchio Gallo | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Notaresco | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real Giulianova | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 |  Atletico Ascoli | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 |  Termoli Calcio | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Lanciano FC | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Maceratese | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 |  Sporting Trestina | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 |  Recanatese | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pietralunga | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 |  Santegidiese | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  Angelana | 11 | -9 | 7 |
More Serie D Girone F predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
On our numbers Recanatese have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Foligno Calcio 45%.
How many goals will there be in Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
When is Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nicola Tubaldi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.