Serie D Girone H · ItalyGravina vs Nocerina prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.02 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Gravina 1.3 – 1.3 Nocerina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Gravina and Nocerina on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Gravina have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Nocerina have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Gravina, 1.3 for Nocerina). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.02 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nocerina to win ✗ | 38% | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 2.02 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.56 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Nocerina / FT Nocerina ✗ | 22% | 4.54 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.39 | – |
Form
Gravina – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Ebolitana | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Francavilla | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Nardò | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Virtus Francavilla | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Virtus Francavilla | 4–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Real Normanna | 0–1 | L |
Nocerina – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Gladiator | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Martina Franca | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Brindisi | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Turris | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Melfi | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs USD Palmese | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gravina and Nocerina.
Serie D Girone H table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Virtus Francavilla | 11 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Martina Franca | 11 | +9 | 22 |
| 3 |  Brindisi | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gravina | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 |  Turris | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Manfredonia | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Gladiator | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Fidelis Andria | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Bisceglie | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  USD Palmese | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Normanna | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nocerina | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Real Forio 2014 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Melfi | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Ebolitana | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Ischia | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Francavilla | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 |  Nardò | 11 | -9 | 7 |
More Serie D Girone H predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Gravina vs Nocerina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Gravina vs Nocerina?
On our numbers Gravina have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nocerina 38%.
How many goals will there be in Gravina vs Nocerina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Gravina vs Nocerina?
Gravina vs Nocerina (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.