Serie D Girone D · Italy · Carlo Speroni

Pro Patria

LDDWW
0–0
FT

Pistoiese

WLWWL

Pro Patria vs Pistoiese prediction & analysis

56%
Footrivo pick

Under 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.80 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.62Odds
1

Value bet: Pro Patria to win @ 3.40 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultPistoiese to win ✗43% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.38
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.65

Win chances

Pro Patria31%fair 3.21 · @3.40
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.65
Pistoiese43%fair 2.30 · @2.30
2.47Expected goals
1.11Pro Patria xG
1.36Pistoiese xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%

From our goals model: Pro Patria 1.1 – 1.4 Pistoiese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Pistoiese shade it despite being away from home – 43% to win, against 31% for Pro Patria.

Pro Patria have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Pistoiese have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.1 for Pro Patria, 1.4 for Pistoiese). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%).

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 56% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.80. For a bigger price, Pro Patria to win at 3.40 is our value angle (31% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPistoiese to win ✗43%2.302.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75%1.341.38
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.911.82
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗71%1.42–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.801.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.31–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pistoiese / FT Pistoiese ✗25%4.02–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12%8.65–

Form

Pro Patria – last 6

LDDWWW
1 Nov@ Pavia0–1L
28 Oct@ Leon1–1D
25 Octvs Correggese1–1D
18 Oct@ USD Casatese2–1W
11 Octvs Sant'Angelo1–0W
7 Oct@ Città di Varese5–2W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Pistoiese – last 6

WLWWLW
1 Novvs Castellanzese4–2W
25 Oct@ Cittadella Vis Modena1–2L
18 Octvs Pavia1–0W
11 Octvs Correggese1–0W
7 Oct@ Sestri Levante0–1L
4 Oct@ USD Casatese3–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Pro Patria and Pistoiese.

More Serie D Girone D predictions

FT Castellanzese0 USD Casatese1 402436 GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.69 ✗ FT Cittadella Vis Modena2 Pavia1 462232 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 62%@1.57 ✗ FT Lentigione2 Arconatese1 641719 1Lentigione to win 64%@1.34 ✓ FT Oltrepò0 Crema3 282250 GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.70 ✗ FT Pro Sesto4 Correggese2 602219 1Pro Sesto to win 60%@1.72 ✓ FT Coriano2 Varesina1 312247 GGBoth teams to score 58%@1.71 ✓ FT Città di Varese2 Sant'Angelo2 462232 GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.77 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

On our numbers Pro Patria have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pistoiese 43%.

How many goals will there be in Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

When is Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?

Pro Patria vs Pistoiese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Carlo Speroni.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.