Serie D Girone I · ItalyIgea Virtus vs Nissa prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.79 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Igea Virtus 1.8 – 1.5 Nissa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Igea Virtus hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 33% for Nissa.
Igea Virtus have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.3 per game. Nissa have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.8 for Igea Virtus, 1.5 for Nissa). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 56% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Igea Virtus to win ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.66 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Igea Virtus / FT Igea Virtus ✗ | 27% | 3.73 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.18 | – |
Form
Igea Virtus – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Reggina | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Trapani 1905 | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Vibonese | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Vigor Lamezia | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Calcio Avola | 4–2 | W |
| 3 May | @ Vigor Lamezia | 1–4 | L |
Nissa – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Vibonese | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Calcio Avola | 2–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Trapani 1905 | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Licata | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Vigor Lamezia | 3–1 | W |
| 17 May | vs Reggina | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Igea Virtus and Nissa.
Serie D Girone I table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Reggina | 11 | +21 | 26 |
| 2 |  Sambiase | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |  Vibonese | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 4 |  Calcio Avola | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Milazzo | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Digiesse PraiaTortora | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Igea Virtus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Gela | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 9 |  Siracusa | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 10 |  AC Palermo | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Licata | 11 | -11 | 14 |
| 12 |  Modica | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Nissa | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Trapani 1905 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  CastrumFavara | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Vigor Lamezia | 11 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Ragusa | 11 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Enna | 11 | -23 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone I predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Igea Virtus vs Nissa?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Igea Virtus vs Nissa?
On our numbers Igea Virtus have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nissa 33%.
How many goals will there be in Igea Virtus vs Nissa?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Igea Virtus vs Nissa?
Igea Virtus vs Nissa (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.