Serie D Girone B · ItalyLeon vs Chievo prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Leon to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leon 1.4 – 1.4 Chievo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Leon and Chievo on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Leon have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Chievo have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Leon come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Leon, 1.4 for Chievo). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Leon have won 0, Chievo have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Leon to win at 3.20 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chievo to win ✓ | 38% | 2.63 | 2.16 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.41 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Chievo / FT Chievo ✗ | 22% | 4.60 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.57 | – |
Form
Leon – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Pavonese | 3–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | @ Real Calepina | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | @ Club Milano | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Villa Valle | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Rovato Vertovese | 2–2 | D |
Chievo – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Milan II | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Virtus Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Brusaporto | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Tritium | 5–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Nibbiano & Valtidone | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza v Chievo | 2–2 |
Serie D Girone B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leon vs Chievo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leon vs Chievo?
On our numbers Leon have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chievo 38%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Chievo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Leon vs Chievo?
Leon vs Chievo (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.