Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Leon to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeon to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceLeon or draw ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.70
Leon vs Villa Valle preview and prediction
The match
Leon host Villa Valle in the Serie D Girone B on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT). Leon are 5th with 21 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Villa Valle sit 7th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Leon's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Rovato Vertovese 2–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Villa Valle's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Milan II 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Leon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Leon Monza e Brianza 1–2 Villa Valle.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Leon and 0.7 for Villa Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 43%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leon 62%, draw 20%, Villa Valle 18%.
Safer route: Leon or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Leon to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leon or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Leon 1–0 Villa Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leon62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.30
Villa Valle18%fair 5.59 · @3.70
2.42Expected goals
1.68Leon xG
0.74Villa Valle xG
43%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Leon 1.7 – 0.7 Villa Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Leon or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leon vs Villa Valle?
On our numbers Leon have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Villa Valle 18%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Villa Valle?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Villa Valle?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–0 Villa Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Villa Valle?
Leon vs Villa Valle (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
