Value bet: Fiorenzuola to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaldiero Terme to win ✗42% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.09
Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme preview and prediction
The match
Fiorenzuola host Caldiero Terme in the Serie D Girone B on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio comunale. Fiorenzuola are 17th with 6 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Caldiero Terme sit 6th on 18 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Fiorenzuola's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Brusaporto 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
Caldiero Terme's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Scanzorosciate 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Caldiero Terme arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Fiorenzuola and 1.3 for Caldiero Terme. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fiorenzuola 34%, draw 24%, Caldiero Terme 42%.
Value angle: Fiorenzuola to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Fiorenzuola 1–1 Caldiero Terme. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorenzuola34%fair 2.90 · @3.20
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Caldiero Terme42%fair 2.40 · @2.05
2.48Expected goals
1.17Fiorenzuola xG
1.32Caldiero Terme xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Fiorenzuola 1.2 – 1.3 Caldiero Terme expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caldiero Terme to win✗
42%
2.40
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caldiero Terme / FT Caldiero Terme✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.09
–
Form
Fiorenzuola – last 4
LLLL
20 Sep
@ Brusaporto
0–1
L
16 Sep
vs Pro Palazzolo
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Nibbiano & Valtidone
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Scanzorosciate
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Caldiero Terme – last 6
WDDLDD
20 Sep
vs Scanzorosciate
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Real Calepina
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Leon
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Milan II
3–4
L
3 May
vs Varesina
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Villa Valle
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorenzuola and Caldiero Terme.
What is the prediction for Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme?
On our numbers Fiorenzuola have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Caldiero Terme 42%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme?
Our predicted score is Fiorenzuola 1–1 Caldiero Terme, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme?
Fiorenzuola vs Caldiero Terme (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio comunale.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
