Value bet: Millesimo to win @ 2.60 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMillesimo to win ✓45% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.40
Fezzanese vs Millesimo preview and prediction
The match
Millesimo travel to face Fezzanese in the Serie D Girone A on Sunday 18 October (14:00 WAT). Fezzanese are 15th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Millesimo sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Fezzanese's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Alessandria 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Millesimo's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Borgosesia 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Millesimo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Fezzanese and 1.3 for Millesimo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 46%.
Value angle: Millesimo to win at 2.60 – 45% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 56% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Fezzanese 1–1 Millesimo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fezzanese34%fair 2.98 · @2.38
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.25
Millesimo45%fair 2.20 · @2.60
2.41Expected goals
1.08Fezzanese xG
1.33Millesimo xG
46%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Fezzanese 1.1 – 1.3 Millesimo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millesimo to win✓
45%
2.20
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millesimo / FT Millesimo✓
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.40
–
Form
Fezzanese – last 6
LLLLWW
11 Oct
@ Alessandria
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Valenzana
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Imperia
0–2
L
21 Sep
vs Gozzano
0–2
L
16 Sep
@ Sestri Levante
3–0
W
13 Sep
vs Chisola
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Millesimo – last 6
WLLWLW
11 Oct
vs Borgosesia
3–0
W
7 Oct
@ Sanremese
2–5
L
4 Oct
@ Asti
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Lascaris
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Derthona
0–1
L
16 Sep
vs Alessandria
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fezzanese and Millesimo.
What is the prediction for Fezzanese vs Millesimo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Fezzanese vs Millesimo?
On our numbers Fezzanese have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Millesimo 45%.
How many goals will there be in Fezzanese vs Millesimo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fezzanese vs Millesimo?
Our predicted score is Fezzanese 1–1 Millesimo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Fezzanese vs Millesimo?
Fezzanese vs Millesimo (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
