Serie D Girone A · ItalyDerthona vs Asti prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.82 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Value bet: Asti to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Derthona 1.3 – 1.2 Asti expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Derthona and Asti on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Derthona have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Asti have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Derthona, 1.2 for Asti). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Derthona have won 0, Asti have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is close to our fair price of 1.82. For a bigger price, Asti to win at 3.10 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Derthona to win ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Derthona / FT Derthona ✗ | 22% | 4.46 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.27 | – |
Form
Derthona – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ Chisola | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Alessandria | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Saluzzo | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Millesimo | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Ligorna | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Imperia | 1–1 | D |
Asti – last 6
| 11 Oct | vs Lascaris | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Millesimo | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Alessandria | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Valenzana | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ Imperia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Gozzano | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Derthona v Asti | 1–1 |
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derthona vs Asti?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Derthona vs Asti?
On our numbers Derthona have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Asti 35%.
How many goals will there be in Derthona vs Asti?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Derthona vs Asti?
Derthona vs Asti (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.